主题：中国的政治风险 -- 风烟滚滚来天半

最近研究俄国经济~看了看俄国的finance system和banking，翻了一些文章，发现了一个很有趣的研究结果，当然，是西方世界的所谓专家给出的结论。

Human development（民生）：印度 128 中国 81 俄国67

Global competitiveness(全球竞争力)： 印度 48 中国34 俄国 58

Freedome of Speach(言论自由)：印度 58。7 中国5.8 俄国 20.2

Political Risk (政治风险)：印度 17.8 中国 32.2 俄国 23.1

总之吧……印度那必须是天朝大国了……不愧是民主国家给第三世界的榜样……别的不论，从政治风险这条来看，西方主流经济学家是很担忧中国的。

前两天见了一个PE的首席经济学家，号称曾经是前前美国总统的首席经济幕僚。他对着我信誓旦旦的说“明年中国经济衰退，引发政治动乱，2到5年即将崩溃……”。看来政治风险是当今中国崩溃论版本的一个核心内容。别的咱不了解，对于政治风险，我觉得还是有必要多讨论讨论。总之，我不认同。要说经济危机啊信任危机啊等等，我觉得那都是有的，但政治风险，说实在的，非常小。

去年在北京，和一些青年教师讨论过青年教师待遇问题。有人很忧心地说党在青年教师队伍中的信用和威信都很成问题，恐怕会有乱子。我理解这个现象：青年教师待遇不高，而这些同志的学历都很高，搞不好还在美帝念过书，难免自恃不凡，拿一个朋友的话就是“以为自己很牛X，其实是个大XX”，加上知识分子的阶级特征，难免怪话连篇。从青年教师队伍延展开来，其实一切知识分子，包括还算不上知识分子的大学生们，都处于这个圈子里。而恰巧这部分人是在网络上声音最大的一群人（较少看到工人农民军人等等灌水），于是如果你看看网易之类的地方，不免大吃一斤：我X，满地陈胜吴广啊……个个都恨不得引一彪美军直捣中南海。但要说政治风险，基本上是一点没有。秀才造反三年不成，百无一用是书生，这都是很对的。读书越多，难免自我意识越重，这样的人是造不成反的，因为会过多的考虑自身利益。可以想象 如果青年教师造反，随便挑两个头目，提成副教授，再开除两个闹的凶的，这部分人肯定就散了……完全搞不成大事。

真正有力量的阶级还是工人农民和军队。分头说：

工人老大哥最猛了，有组织有能力，因此国家一定是会照顾这部分人的利益，大国企中铝中钢中化云云就是明显的例子。总的来说，比起前些年，这部分人动乱的意愿并不强烈。

农民伯伯也很虎，人多力量大，造反的弱点是缺乏组织性和政治纲领，政府在逐步照顾这部分人的利益，取消农业税等等。

军队是决定性力量，泰国一辆坦克就能造反……不过我党高明之处在于坚定不移党指挥枪，加之军队待遇逐步提高，我认为也是比较稳定的。

这样看，国家其实在降低政治风险上是很有针对性的：安抚工农军，相对忽略年轻知识分子阶级，但又给与老知识分子以高待遇高规格礼遇（钱学森），这样可以给年轻知识分子一点盼头。这样来看，其实没有什么动荡因素。注意，当然存在各种各样的危机和风险，我只是说，没有一个阶层真正存在着革命的动机和/或能力。中国内外部问题都很多，年轻人应该多多思考，但我个人建议大家忽略题目很耸人听闻的文章。

是《中国时代》一书编者师先生的一个沙龙，这后面交流提问阶段，一个30左右的男士讲：他在美国呆了几年，接触了一些blacklist上的人，说大家普遍预测会崩溃，会死很多人。

我心里暗想：估计这不是他们的预测，而是他们的愿望吧。这些人老珠黄的，不停的在戳纸人：让你ya不崩溃，让你ya过好日子，我戳死你们！

不过我觉得政府的控制还是很强。人民堵个政府啥的没问题，谁敢打出大旗造反呢……所谓政治风险，不是不能闹，相反，鼓励大家表达意见和情绪。我只是觉得造反的可能性很小，至少3-5年内几乎不可能。

其实造反是有很多方向的。。。中央天天喊稳定，你以为是喊给赵九晚五的小老百姓听得？太抬举屁民了。

我也感觉！这确实是他们的愿望……只要提到要崩溃，美国人人都愿望向这个方向想~期望中国变成苏联。可惜这个论调太老了……老得他们也没信心了 只能天天无意义的念叨。只是我在做中国的研究，天天看各种无聊唱衰报告，看的烦的不行，一点新意都没有。

但可惜我一介小民……这方面实在了解的太少……外部对中国的革命？好像成效不大。内部派系的分裂？这倒有点意思，左派右派之类的……可惜咱都不懂……你有啥推荐的资料咱去看看？

动静闹得这么厉害，他这就是纯粹的打黑？

多多下河，保皇党和造反派就分得清了。

随着矛盾的深入发展，以后会斗得越来越厉害。

其实我在河里潜了两年多了……也就新年第一天 决定下河摸鱼~以后多指教~

我倒觉得左右互博是好事，有点像美国自由派与保守派转化的架势。

湖北石首事件,贵州瓮安事件都是震惊中外的严重社会骚乱事件。

用百度一搜，群体性事件就可以知道。

http://news.163.com/09/1221/10/5R24MLFB0001124J.html

http://www.chinavalue.net/NewsDig/NewsDig.aspx?DigId=24423

其实石首事件我根本不明白为什么上万人会参与呢？不可能是为了正义之类的吧……那成千上万的人到底是被什么驱动着啊……基本上对他们都是事不关己的啊……哪来这么大动力……就是趁机发泄？那就还好。你看法国过个年 烧了几百辆车，简直打砸抢烧，社会也没怎么样……关键是怕人组织，怕人利用，那就真的困难了。

Military is part of society, no matter how much "patriotic education" one receives, each and every individual soldier/sailor/airman all has their own brain and their own perspective, they see everything you see in the society and like you, they probably feel hopeful every time they see the good side of China, disillusioned every time they see the dark side of the China. Don't think they are mindless droids who only know to follow orders.

As for the whole political risk thing, I honestly don't even know how to form my own opinion, the government can bash all of its critics as pawns of western imperialists all they want, but we all know the problem China has and how greedy some of the special interest groups are. The fact that over the past decade, the government has become much more aggressive in term of doing whatever it can, no matter how ridiculous it sounds, to stamp out even the faintest hint of criticism, proves that the government itself is far from being as optimistic about the future as many HKCs are. (frankly speaking, every time I see the government launches yet another campaign to "purify" the interest,

I feel like being kicked on my crotch, I can and did defend China on a lot of issues, but I can't honestly tell anybody that such spineless policies ain't something that only a government seriously scared of its own people can come up with. I don't like Western media's grotesque campaign of misinformation when it comes to China, but on this particular matter, I can't help but agreeing with their assessment: this is not an sign of strength, this is an sign of weakness, and an sign of lack of confidence on doing what's needed to be done to rectify the situation.)

I don't know what China would be like 50 years from now, I don't know if the current China would survive as opposed to crumbling into pieces like Soviet Union did 50 years from now. I hope not, but I can't force myself to share the optimism, after all, I'm not even sure the current crop of leadership gets what it takes to do what Deng Xiaoping and Li Peng did back in 89, the military can be as loyal as it can, but unless somebody has the authority and the ball to do, you know, what's necessary when faced with massive social unrest, all the shiny tanks, missiles, rifles won't mean squat. The Red Army of 1991, even today, is still years ahead of PLA of 2009 as far as I know, and as far as I know, the military itself was still quite supportive of the preservation of Soviet Union. But does it matter? Obviously not much. In an system in which the military is firmly under the leadership of civilian government, The military is only as useful as the civilian government wants it to be. As evidenced by the events of 91, it's entirely possible that even the biggest beneficiaries (the coup plotters include vice president, head of KGB, defense minister, you can't say they weren't part of the system, you can't say they had no incentive to defend the system, yet they still flinched.)of status quo could hesitate in the face of massive social opposition. In 89, Deng Xiaoping got it, I don't think government of 09 got it.

One popular explanation to the seemly inexplicable question regarding how a country as powerful as Soviet Union could collapse overnight is "if nobody were willing to kill for the system, it means the system is a goner". I don't think China can repeat what happened in 89, I sincerely hope China would not be forced to make similar choice in the future, but when pushed to the brink, only "decisive" action, you all know what "decisive" here means, could restore order. Judging by what happened in Sinjiang (against a bunch of cold-blooded killers who were armed with the most rudimentary weapon and who were overwhelmingly hated by the vast majority of the population, yet the reaction from this seemly "authoritarian" government was tepid, even shy, do you think the reaction would be really that different if Beijing were filled with another million, you know...?), I'm not optimistic. Now I only hope that the increasing professionalism of the bureaucracy and the momentum of Chinese industrialization could compensate the lack of political will, in another word, I hope the government could be smart enough to not push the public off the brink at the very least, and competent enough to actually increase the stake average people have in the system so that they don't have to go to the extreme.

To sum it up, there is hope, there is risk, I don't think anybody can make a convincing case either for or against the possibility of social unrest large enough to derail the whole process of industrialization. Nobody has crystal ball. However, IF China were really unfortunate to have to relive the whole 89 experience again, personally, I'd not bet my money on China emerging out of it unscathed....