主题：【消息】美国贸易赤字又创历史纪录 -- Highway

如果加上12月份的数字，美国2004年全年的贸易赤字将突破6000亿美元，为美国历史之最。

最近美元疲软，人们普遍认为美国出口会有所增加，进口会略微减少，贸易赤字会小幅下跌。但数字一出来，人们还是大跌眼镜。美国贸易赤字11月，12月继续攀升。11月单月就突破了600亿美元，令人瞠目结舌。毫不例外的，华尔街股市顿时应声下跌！

顺便一提，美国的国债现在是多少呢？大约是7万6千亿美元。用数字表达就是：

并且涨势正旺，每天以21.7亿美元的速度在增加。面对这些数字，你有何感想？

[SIZE=3]U.S. Trade Deficit Soars to All-Time High of $60.3 Billion in Nov., Reflecting Record Import Levels[/SIZE]

The Commerce Department said the November deficit was up 7.7 percent from an imbalance of $56 billion in October, which had been the previous monthly record. The new record caught private economists by surprise. They had been forecasting a slight narrowing in the November trade gap.

"This caught a lot of us by surprise. We had been anticipating a pull back in the November deficit because of a decline in the price of oil," said Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Bank in Charlotte, N.C.

The trade deficit through November totaled $561.3 billion, far above the previous annual record of $496.5 billion set in 2003, and put the country on track to record a trade imbalance topping $600 billion when the December figures are added.

The November deficit reflected record imbalances with a number of countries including Canada, South Korea and Russia. The largest deficit as usual was with China, although the $16.6 billion gap was down slightly from October.

Critics point to the yawning deficits as evidence that President Bush's trade policies are not working. Democrats contend that the administration has not done enough to protect American workers from unfair competition from low-wage foreign countries such as China.

The administration counters that the trade gap is primarily a reflection of a U.S. economy that has been growing faster than most of the rest of the world.

"Our economy is the economic engine for world growth. Our economy is growing faster than many across the world," White House press secretary Scott McClellan said Wednesday after the report's release. "Because of that prosperity, Americans are shopping in the global marketpalce, buying more goods and services than other countries which are not growing as fast. Just as we have taken steps here to strengthen our economy and increase growth, it's important for other world economies to grow as well."

Private economists are concerned, nevertheless, about whether America will have the ability to continue to finance trade deficits at such high levels.

If foreigners suddenly decide that they do not want to hold dollars in payment for the foreign goods that American consumers love to purchase, it could put added downward pressure on the American currency, which has been declining in value against a number of other currencies for the past three years.

The administration insists it still favors a strong dollar policy although it has done nothing to slow the greenback's decline, a drop that economists believe eventually will help to narrow the trade gap by making U.S. products cheaper on overseas markets and imports more expensive in the United States.

U.S. exports, which had been rising for much of the year, suffered a setback in November, falling 2.3 percent to $66.5 billion. It was the first decline in five months and reflected a drop in shipments of U.S. autos and auto parts, civilian aircraft, telecommunications equipment and industrial machinery.

Overseas sales of American farm products, for years a star performer among American exports, slipped by 1.7 percent to $4.7 billion with shipments of fruit, soybeans and vegetables all showing declines. The country is on track to record a deficit in farm goods this year as imports are running above exports through November, reflecting a surge in consumer demand for foreign wines, fruits and other foods.

Imports in November rose 1.3 percent to an all-time high of $155.8 billion. This increase was led by an 11.8 percent jump in petroleum products, which hit a monthly record of $19.4 billion.

The increase in America's foreign oil bill reflected higher volume. The average price of crude oil dipped a bit to $41.15 per barrel, compared to $41.79 in October.

With individual countries, the deficit with Canada, America's largest trading partner, hit a record high of $7.3 billion. The deficit with South Korea rose to a record $2.3 billion while the deficit with Russia increased to $1.3 billion. The deficit with Japan rose to $7.3 billion, which was the highest level since October 2000.

贸易数据里不包括美国公司在海外的分公司在所在国的销售。BUSH政府对于这些海外分公司的利润返回本土在税务上有很大的优惠，这些资金回流可能可以支持一部分债务。

实际上这个问题需要深入的量化分析，请大家扔砖。

分公司在美国本土的销售也不计算在内。如果这个“对称”性存在，并且我们粗略假设这个数字和你所说的相抵平，那么那个贸易赤字还是实打实的。对不?

最近的经济运行比较让人奇怪的是明知道美国的双赤问题，资金流入好象还是能够勉强能够维持低息环境，除了亚洲贸易顺差国继续购买美元资产外，似乎还有些原因，希望引玉吧。

[FLY]知道这是什么玉吗？[/FLY]

既然这么多债务，美国只能加快速度印钞票。否则如何还呢？

这里俺有些跳步，理论上，预期通涨来临，会使投资人抛售债券，债券的利率升高；社会的整体融资环境恶化。

美国的双赤问题严重，联储连发警告，说只要美国的债主们有一天不想再买美元资产了，对于美国以及世界的经济都会造成冲击。相当有趣的是，从04年12月中开始美元开始走强，一直到今天出贸易赤字为止。以后资金怎么走大概是要看美国和其他国家的经济发展势头对比，现在普遍的估计是欧洲和日本放缓；华尔街对中国，印度，俄罗斯，巴西嘴巴上还是看好，“不得不拥有，和18世纪的美国一样”，实际上，有资金回流。

不过这些，如果对于做实业的人来说，都看得太短了。希望常常看到无斋兄。

主要是中国盯着美元，而美国的日常消费商品都来自中国。来自中国的部分不会膨胀，因为中国在短期内没有这个能力升值，中国靠的是外贸拉动来实行就业，在转型期中国的最大考虑是就业（也就是社会稳定），不是盈利。中国的贫富差距已经说明了在短期内内需拉动成为泡影，对于外贸的依赖难以摆脱，所以我认为美国可以继续将很大部分通胀的压力通过中国制造来舒缓。

但是，没有中国制造的部分就会看到相当大得通胀压力，比如房地产、服务性行业（尤其是医疗）、石油能源。

美国商务部发布去年11月贸易赤字外扩大高于预期，美元闻讯一蹶不振，美元兑其它主要货币周三在纽约汇市重挫。瑞士信贷第一波士顿 (CSFB) 更看跌美元今年上半年表现，主要是联准会 (Fed) 升息将导致美国经济成长放缓，加上美国金融资产需求下滑。

美国财政部长史诺今天强调，外国市场增长导致美国贸易赤字激增，淡化了美国政策，更使得美元走势雪上加霜。

根据商务部表示，去年 11 月贸易赤字意外扩大至603 亿美元，再度刷新历史纪录，因石油和消费品需求带动进口金额创新高，当月出口减少。

史诺一席话再度反映出布什政府除了一再重申支持强势美元政策之外，实对美元贬值一直袖手旁观。

纽约周三汇市尾盘，欧元兑美元达 1.3260 美元，高于前一日收盘价 1.3111 美元。美元兑日圆达102.38 日圆，低于前一日收盘价 103.33 日圆。

美元兑瑞士法郎达1.1671 (.1825)，英镑兑美元由1.8782美元下跌至1.8908美元。

贸易赤字再创新高重燃美国经常帐赤字疑虑，而这正是导致美元疲软不振的结构性利空。

贸易赤字扩大导致多名经济分析师调降美国第四季经济成长预估，摩根士丹利Morgan Stanley经济专家如今预估美国第四季国内生产毛额 (GDP)将扩张3.5%，低于先前预估的4%。

CSFB外汇分析师Lara Rhame表示，在七国工业集团下月初集会之前，美国贸易赤字可能使得美元持续为贬值阴霾笼罩。

Rhame 预估，美元兑欧元在 G7 会议之前有可能改写历史新低，欧元可能升破 1 欧元兑 1.3660 美元。

史诺低调响应美国贸易赤字创纪录，仅称它反映出美国经济强劲成长。史诺也说，预定下月4-5 日在伦敦举行的G7会议的讨论主轴应为全球经济成长率。

商务部表示，11月贸易赤字增加7.7%，相较于修正后的10月赤字为560亿美元。美国对中国的11月贸易逆差也和10月创下的史上高点相去不远。

11月进口增加1.3%达1558亿美元，出口减少2.3%达956亿美元，为去年6月以来首度出现减少。

经济分析师原先预估11月赤字缩减至540亿美元，相较于官方初报的10月赤字555亿美元。

美国2004年前11月的贸易逆差金额累计达5613亿美元，超越2003全年贸易赤字总额。美国去年下半年消费支出回升，导致进口品需求上扬。经济专家认为，同期日本与欧洲经济成长落后美国，可能抑制美国产品的外销需求。

11月美国对中国的贸易逆差缩减至166亿美元，略低于10月创下的最高纪录168亿美元。全年美国约有1/4的贸易赤字来自中国，美方要求中国调整人民币紧钉美元汇制的压力升高。

CSFB外汇分析师表示，当美国须吸引足够的资金以弥补创纪录的贸易赤字时，美国吸金魅力将减退。外汇分析师Lara Rhame说：「当Fed升息之际，投资量将滑落。」

CSFB预估美元兑欧元将在3个月内下探1欧元至1.35美元，兑日圆同期下探101日圆。

根据经济专家预估，Fed将在今年年底以前将联邦基金利率由目前的2.25%调升至3.5%。

这个在美国国民支出中占的份额不高吧……