主题：老共官办红生产豪赌的"风险" -- 晓兵

老共官办红生产的豪赌

我对政治的关心仅至于经济和金融，事实上三者也是分不开的，但涉及到老中宏观，许多变量比如”国家，民族，将来，大多数人民“"利益"很难定义，甚至当今中国今天这些变量也很难定义，说不清；

我们老中几千年的“家文化”说不清，以及"说的清"的经常十分自信的“中文化”，即老中中心场文化，即坐标系原点设在中国，在中国坐标系原点又设置在“中央”，民族文化很难改变，即使老中已经改开30年了，就象欧美文化，老印文化，伊斯兰文化改也难一样。

眼下看，欧洲危机后政经调整很不错，减赤，国家退出市场，返回资本主义“本证方程”，经济进步转形,扬长避短搞高端,等等；

老美除欧八外，似乎也形成这样一个共识，即学欧洲,减赤，国家退出市场，返回资本主义“本证方程”，地方政府裁员，经济进步转形, 等；

欧美金融韵滑手段特别是老美，就是大发货币，减轻上面政经调整过程中的痛苦，成本, 河里forger写过不少；

欧美敢大发货币豪赌，大概算准了老共官办红生产的豪赌可以避免欧美生活品通胀，同时刺激欧美出口，等等；

当然也许老共认为，即使欧美”政经调整“成功，老共红生产世界市场扩大，未必吃亏，等；

老共官办红生产豪赌的"风险"当然也很多了，河里唱空派已有很多讨论。

Dimon of JPMtoday, 'we have more confidence (then other banks) because we have so much damn capital'...

如果欧美豪赌真赌成了，赚大方了，老共应该是亏方，否则不就共产主义或着“普世”永动机了？老共会“大亏”在什么地方？

另外一方面，感觉亚洲其他国家似乎也在”民进官退“，我们瞧不上的老印以及其他亚洲国家甚至对外汇市场干预越来越少，自信本国内生经济？各国政治经济发展文化价值观上，老共是否有些孤独？亚洲其他国家被欧美“普世”统战了？

老共红生产，尽管各种问题，开打欧美中高端制造业了，当然老共中高端制造业能打多远，说不清了，谁敢战略做空老共红生产?

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Belgium's Option Can `Survive Battle' Against China's Huawei With EU Help

By Jonathan Stearns and John Martens - Sep 30, 2010 5:53 AM PT Tweet (4)LinkedIn Share

Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .Option NV, the unprofitable Belgian maker of modems, predicted a “turning point” for its business and renewed hope for innovation in the European Union should the EU make good on threats to slow imports from China.

Option Chief Executive Officer Jan Callewaert made the projections as the EU weighs imposing tariffs on wireless modems from China to counter alleged subsidies to Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. and possible below-cost -- or “dumped” -- sales by those producers in Europe. The bloc is also threatening to apply quantitative limits, known as safeguards, on imports of the devices from all non-EU countries led by China.

At stake is Europe’s manufacturing presence in an EU market worth 1.5 billion euros ($2 billion), according to Option, the bloc’s only producer of the wireless wide-area networking modems covered by the three European trade probes. This marks the first time the EU has opened simultaneous dumping, subsidy and safeguard investigations in support of a single European producer, shifting the focus of European trade curbs against China from traditional goods such as shoes and bicycles to high- tech telecommunications.

“This will be a turning point,” Callewaert said in an interview yesterday at Option’s headquarters in Leuven, Belgium. “We should come to a level playing field. It would re-establish the company in the market with respect.”

Option exemplifies how Europe is stepping up the threat of trade curbs against China. To bolster European exporters and narrow its trade deficit, the 27-nation EU has joined the U.S. in pressing China to let its currency strengthen as the global economy recovers from the financial crisis.

Chinese Dumping

The EU imposes anti-dumping duties on dozens of Chinese goods ranging from textiles and chemicals to ironing boards and candles. China, the world’s most populous country, faces this kind of EU trade protection on about 50 products -- more than any other nation.

The EU opened the dumping and safeguard probes covering Chinese wireless modems in June and began the government-aid inquiry in mid-September -- only the second European subsidy case against China following an April one involving paper. Initial measures on modems may come within nine months of the start of the investigations.

“There is evidence of a number of unfair trade practices happening at the same time,” John Clancy, a spokesman at the European Commission, the EU’s trade authority in Brussels, said in an e-mail yesterday about the Option cases.

Market Share

Huawei and ZTE, both based in Shenzhen, now control 95 percent of the European market for the wireless modems covered by the trade probes compared with nothing in 2005, according to Option. Average prices for Option’s devices dropped 30 percent last year, following a 39 percent slide in 2008.

“We need to survive this battle,” Callewaert said. “The sooner the commission comes out with measures, the better.”

Option, which hasn’t reported a profit since the first quarter of 2008, has cut its workforce to 250 from 679 at the end of 2008. The company’s market value has fallen 97 percent from a peak in 2006.

Option had 7.65 million euros of cash and short-term investments left at the end of June after raising 20.2 million euros in a stock sale to existing shareholders in December. The company is selling a unit developing a wireless radio transceiver for the next generation of embedded modems to avoid running out of cash, according to Callewaert.

‘Canary in Coal Mine’

Huawei reported that 2009 sales rose 19 percent to 149.1 billion yuan ($22.3 billion) and Tim Watkins, the company’s western Europe vice president, predicts that revenue will climb to about $30 billion this year. Huawei is the world’s only supplier of telecom equipment that ranks among the three largest vendors in fixed, mobile and Internet-based networks.

China’s biggest telecom-equipment maker beat Stockholm- based Ericsson AB, the world’s No. 1 provider of wireless phone networks, in December to win a contract for so-called Long-Term Evolution wireless technology from Tele2 AB and Telenor ASA in Sweden.

“We are a canary in a coal mine,” Callewaert said. “Everyone is waking up and they look to this case because it’s an important one. It’s one of the first cases in the high-tech arena for Europe.”

Huawei’s dominance in the European modem market is based on accurate forecasting, innovation, manufacturing flexibility and economies of scale, Watkins said at a briefing in Brussels on Sept. 28. He forecast the global market for those modems, including built-in devices, will triple to 60 million units in 2012 from about 20 million last year.

‘Reasonable’ Earnings

Employee-owned Huawei has no link to the Chinese government and the company earns “reasonable” profits on sales of those devices, Watkins said. Huawei also disputes the validity of Option’s complaints, saying the Belgian company is no longer a European producer after farming out manufacturing to China.

Option says it has shifted basic hardware assembly to China from the EU while keeping development, control, testing and final processing of the wireless modems at European sites including Leuven and Cork, Ireland. As a result, Option says it remains an EU producer of the devices.

都没错。都是往中间靠。欧洲前些年（经济上）太左了，税和赤字太高了，福利太好把人养懒了，社会太平等所以没效率了，所以要向右转。中国过去三十年一直在右转，搞“民进国退”，超高效率也伴随着贫富差距的拉开和社会阶层的迅速分化，所以这两年有一点“国进民退”也很正常。左转或者右转本身都没有对错，只有时势和程度的问题，并且要和生产力水平匹配。好比水多了加面，面多了加水。单纯把“加面”或者“加水”吹成“普世价值”都有点忽悠的嫌疑。

欧洲右转不过是欧洲国家当前生产力水平下福利社会搞过了头的反作用，怎么也不可能返回到亚当斯密时代低税率，无福利，基本无政府监管的自由市场经济。欧洲各国政府拼命筹钱救希腊等国，大举干预债券市场的行为可不是资本主义“本证方程”。至于欧洲右转能不能成功，那就要看欧洲产业竞争力能不能迅速反弹，还有欧洲人民忍耐力如何了。总的来说我不太看好，可能性最大的是欧洲国家之间贫富分化。

现在美国很难说是在左转还是右转，似乎还拿不定主意，估计至少要到中期选举之后才有定论。

写得好，物理论，阴谋论

世界主要经济体都在搞各自内部和互相间再平衡。比如老中外贸占gdp比重下降，FDI占国内总投资一直在5%左右；

如果上述及各种平衡持续，市场风险总的看是降低的，今天许多国家股市恢复道危机前08年水平，September 2008,dax;

谢，希望各位多写.

风险降低（？）另外一条，囚徒困境，国际间“武装政治”见少

老美想打伊朗打不了，等；欧洲对老中往来未比一定请示老美，典型的多多交换网洛市场，私人资本国际间流动更是不讲政治了，贸易战货币战一定有，但不致于不可收拾，各国”两家一行“也主要是要搞好本国经济，也许是第一目标，该左左，该右右，邓猫论；

政治当然还在，

“欧洲各国政府拼命筹钱救希腊等国，大举干预债券市场的行为可不是资本主义“本证方程””=欧洲政治方程

老中维稳=老中政治方程

老美政治层目前没有党中央，联储现在是老美淮海战役前线指挥部，指挥美圆海军世界战役，市场对联储似信心很大

欧：海军第一阶段已打完，美: 海军刚出港口，小鬼子海军: 正在忙于点火; 老中: 目前还是海上商船货运民工大队

欧美金融韵滑手段特别是老美，就是大发货币，减轻上面政经调整过程中的痛苦，成本, 河里forger写过不少...

are you sure you read my words ? or the reply by the others?

你的文读过一些，我也许是没完全明白。

美联储大量印钱买国债，最直接的就是降低老美借贷成本。。。

由于老中红生产，特别是消费品，及人民币订住美元，美欧生活品物价通胀有限。。。。。

至于老美何时有”能力“提高利率，很难讲，美欧低成长会好长一段，有人讲至少5年。。。

即使老美提高利率，老共未必没有应对能力，老中经济不至于受”致命“打击。。。其他发展中国家就不好讲了

老共独特的政经能力，老中独特的文化，结合在一起，战斗力很难用传统经济”规律“评估，比如曾讲的停电故事。

忙总讲，老外基本上搞不明白老共的易经，类似朝鲜战场，中西文化差距太大；欧美阴谋论一定有，实践中另外一回事，市场也无法测度这种事情，。。。眼下，整个资本主义世界钱流，物流，人流恢复了很多，有钱赚就好，市场从过去两年的极度恐慌中回复了不少元气

个人看法.

老共在老中”大部分“人民”家文化“,“中文化”配合下，几乎是全面掌控老中政经系统及其各种参数设定，"神"了, 系统都快成线性了，。。北朝鲜当然就是“鬼”了，鬼了多少年？

“永动机”是很荒唐的概念，但十年之内，在已有的科技，资本，世界市场基础上，中国农民和土地，内地有巨大纵深玩城市化，工业化，如果不考虑”其他问题“，谁能挡得住老共红生产？