主题:实体经济的困局,是缺钱吗? -- cgangcm

2014-09-16 12:36:12晓兵
"毛林共识"政治模型根本缺陷: 信息模型缺陷

1.

"信息处理本质上是一个物理过程"

孙昌璞 信息处理本质上是一个物理过程( ↑0 ↓0. 1 ... ustc website, 段路明郭光灿量子信息讲座.

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"在时空中 度量结构(距离)的定义 是个物理问题"

changshou: 几何直观地介绍广义相对论的时空以及大爆炸模型

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2.

does everybody have to understand 物理? of course not, but you have to have top universities with top physicists;

and that top 物理 (世界观 level) information has to find its way into other social science areas of society.

I have talked about hedging as a 物理世界观;

and another "物理世界观": as a modern society, you have to have multiple information processing systems, for them to compete and sometimes to discuss with each other, to fight the dark war of the next day, when market opens in the morning.

and those multiple information processing systems are embedded into different social political and economic organizations independent of each other, not "coupled", so each of them could contribute valuable information to the system, and independent of each other, reducing 相关 risk, etc.

in that sense, white's 普氏 system of economics and politics, is just as important in terms of risk hedging, and it is a "物理世界观" concept, which is very hard for Chinese nation to comprehend, a nation with a 文科世界观 of 5k years, now that with that 文科世界观 having been updated on to Marxism level, by TG, and it almost sounds like a science.

hedging, balancing and "go slow"(if you cannot quantify the risk, how to hedge?)=社会物理学公理 #1.

how much Chinese nation has been paying for Mao's 1 person trades of international macros since 1949?

and the tricky part: Marxism does offer a very insightful view of social economic system, with its many pieces really look like a science, even a beauty, to some extent.

汉密尔顿ABC,陈王奋起挥黄钺, hullo, they all offered some good views of Marxism as a model.

but, like anything, Marxism has to be hedged.

Marxism propaganda as a 宇宙真理 embodied in 伟光正?

did I say china is still a 半封建 society?

3.

Marxism as a model still commands power, and most white never get it, and TG in a way did get it.

what is even more tricky is Marxism as a model could work from now on as a headfake to TG: faking TG top into a over self confidence trap, etc, accumulating more cost and less benefit of Marxism modelling, and they don't know it.

when a position starts eating into you, you either close it out, cutting loss, or putting some hedge. you have to do something, you can not just sit over your fat ass doing 惯性运动.

in a social system, a small and local risk could get out of control and snowball into a global risk, eating anybody on its way, bloody.

again, that is a "物理世界观", and TG top is basically a bounce of 文科世界观 politicians.

specifically, that is quite bit of risk there for chairman X, he had very limited education, and full of Marxism 文科世界观, like many of his red gen II buddies.

so, you basically have a bounce of 文科世界观 politicians all "coupled" together running a 文科世界观 nation without any other real independent information processing system whatsoever?

omg(:).

this is why I keep saying that start your children in physics and English, yesterday.

Chinese social science is full of "risks"(:)

4.

TGchina is a "all in one" top heavy information processing system, and at TG top level only.

I would think that uncle sam's all kinds of teams have been running all kinds of models, with one goal:

how to break this damned top heavy uncle Tg with his pocket full of money, sitting atop of mountain of full of risks, and almost at the edge of falling apart?

if he falls from top, everybody gets a share of his money, sounds good?(:)

feeling his ass a little 痒痒 or pain, chairman X tells his troops: run the damned "毛林共识" ALGO, shoot anybody who dares stand up on our way, whomever he might be.

omg, watch out, baby(:)

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日本的情况, [ 集庆彪 ]

我只能从媒体中获知。这个国家对我来说是个迷。希望以后有机会去生活一段时间。

目前我在美国工作生活。就我在美国了解的情况来说,我还真没发觉这场危机对平民百姓的生活造成多大的影响。这应该归功于社会制度的完善合理。现在美国的经济复苏很快。回头看,2008年的美债危机很有点阴谋论的味道。有人说是美国主动刺破泡沫。在我看来,即便不是主动刺破,也绝没有刻意维护泡沫。

美国在2008年之所以放任泡沫破灭,从美国国内经济来说是为了调整结构,以迎接新一轮的科技产业革命。从这点上来看,美国的政治精英对国家的掌控是值得敬佩的。当我们中国人不屑地说美国是财团或资本控制的时候,请再思考一下(现在有很多人对事物的认识模式化,既浅薄又庸俗)。这一点有很多可以展开说的,但水平有限,时间也有限,还是留给牛人去评论吧。

从国际上来讲,我认为美国的决策层应该对危机的路线图有较清晰的掌控。现实的结果是,美国率先从危机中走出。日本已经、正在,欧洲马上要实行QE。而中国则陷入了巨大的资产泡沫,国民经济和社会政治被泡沫绑架。中国目前不得不小心地维护不让泡沫破灭(4万亿后,实际上中国已经打光了QE这张牌)。结合中国人口结构的改变,我很担心中国可能就此错过了产业升级的历史机遇。这个机遇是过去170几年中国无数的苦难和奋斗争取来的。我对这一认识并没有把握。历史会给出答案。

日本的利益,我感觉是和美国的利益在现阶段不谋而合的。日元大幅度贬值宽松其实和欧元区是一个道理。美国也希望这两个经济体能在现有的产业结构中挣扎生存,不要在新技术产业对美国造成太大的压力,而同时压制中国的产业升级。因为中国产业升级过程中主要的竞争对手是日本,韩国和德国。

可以说美日目前在经济竞争中处于非常有利的位置。而中国却要面对自己内部严重的政治和经济危机。中国现有的资产泡沫和虚高的人民币汇率给国内的权贵阶层以最大化的利益。而这一阶层目前掌控国家的经济金融政策。我的观察是这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上(这一点极其无耻,但同时又是中国的政治结构所决定的)。因此,在今后几年中中国有可能出现较大的经济危机。至于是什么时候,这要看全中国的资源还有多少可用于博弈的。中国政府无疑是目前世界上掌控资源最多的政府。但就像我在另外的一个帖子说的,别的国家赌钱,中国是在赌命。

基于这些考虑,以及习李上台后的种种措施,我以为我们需要警惕中国民族主义的威胁。说到美国的民族主义,我的体会是美国主流的思想是爱国,敬佩为国服务的军人。(插一小例:有一次下飞机时,机长说机上有几名现役军人,希望其他乘客让这些军人先下机。当这几个军人起立走向机舱口时,全体乘客和机务人员为他们鼓掌。)至于对政府,广大人民一贯持批评态度。

美国广大的受教育民众从小被教育要独立思考,珍惜自由和尊重生命。很难想像这样的国家会有失去理智的民族主义。更何况,现今的美国是世界民族的熔炉。各民族还在不断地融合过程中,很难产生高度统一的民族思想。这不同于二战前的美国,日本,德国,也有别于现今的中国。很遗憾地说,目前很大一部分中国人对人类文明的认识,对科学和民主的理解可能没有比54运动时有多大的提高。产生义和团和红卫兵的土壤并没有发生多大的变化。因此,我很悲观。另,我们现在的最高领导人的世界观是在文化大革命中形成的。这一点兄台有无察觉?

很高兴有机会和您交流。班门弄斧,见笑!

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