主题：【文摘】能源的长线战略 - 看看这些数据 -- 倥偬飞人

国际能源署上个星期公布了世界能源展望World Energy Outlook，提到主要由于发展中国家不断增长的需求，到2030年全世界每天需要1.16亿桶石油，比目前的8500万桶增长27%, 而达到这个目标，需要增加三个沙特阿拉伯的石油生产量，而油价将达到97美元一桶。

要满足将来二十五年的能源需求，需要投资20万亿美元（世界前三名美国、日本和德国的GDP总和），其中仅中国就需要投入3.7万亿美元（是中国目前GDP的三倍？）。即使花这么多钱，还不一定达得到目的！

81%的能源还是来自于常规的石油、天然气和煤炭。

Energy Forecast Means Good News for Drillers

By Steve Christ

When the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its much awaited "World Energy Outlook" last week, the news it contained in regards to the world's oil and gas future was eye-opening. In fact, it was downright bleak.

That's because, according to the report, governments and companies worldwide will need to spend a phenomenal $20 trillion over the course of the next 25 years just to be able meet the world's ever growing appetite for energy. A mammoth sum.

Amazingly, this astounding figure represents one year's gross domestic product of the U.S., Japan, and Germany, the world's three largest economies, combined.

And even at that stunning rate it may still fall short, because the report also suggests that even with all of that spending there is "no guarantee" that it will succeed.

"Under-investment in new energy supply is a real risk," said Claude Mandil, the executive director of the agency, noting that higher industry costs have swelled that figure by $3 trillion dollars this year alone.

The report also went on to note that more than half of that total will need to be spent in emerging economies, where demand is rising rapidly.

This is nowhere more apparent than in China. It alone will need to spend an estimated $3.7 trillion on its energy needs over the next 25 years to be able to meet demand.

That's because, while worldwide energy use will likely increase by an average of 1.6 percent per year through 2030, its "center of gravity" will shift towards the energy needs of the world's developing countries. Their ballooning growth, says the report, will inevitably spur increased appetites for fossil fuels.

This, according to the report, will cause worldwide demand to rise to 116 million barrels a day, from 85 million barrels today. That represents a 27% increase in demand in 25 years, leaving a massive shortfall of 31 million barrels a day compared to today's usage.

That's the equivalent of needing to find some four times the amount of oil produced daily by Saudi Arabia alone, just to close the gap and meet future demand.

And needless to say, meeting this demand is not going to cheap. The report estimates that some 81% of the world's energy needs will continue be met by a combination of oil, gas and coal.

In fact, the report assumes $97.30-a-barrel oil to be the norm by the year 2025.