主题：【讨论】中亚火药桶看来很不妙 -- 一着

乱了这么多年，中亚的火药也基本消耗得差不多了。最多也就是出个卢旺达（看似目前不会到那个程度，因为魏明程度还是要高一点）。除了人道主义危机，对世界政局没有什么影响。

中国倒是需要多关注，中亚是中国能源问题的突破口之一。

有聪明人在英国报纸 Guardian 网站的评论, < >之间是我的补充:

Guardian英国妓者的原文:

...

the way Stalin designed the region ensured that it would regularly be shaken by inter-ethnic violence. When he drew lines on a map to form new Soviet republics in the 1920s he created minorities that were bound to make them unstable. With the collapse of communism the notional internal borders of the USSR became real international borders, which exacerbated the difficulties of minorities caught on the wrong side of the lines.

斯大林的方式设计确保它会定期由种族间的暴力动摇该地区。当他在地图上画线，在20世纪20 年代，形成新的苏联的共和国，他也创建早晚会让他们不稳定的少数民族。随着共产主义的崩溃,名义在苏联内部边界成为真正的国际边界，这加剧了对陷入错误的一边的少数民族人的困难。

明眼人的评论 (Sikandarji 21 Jun 2010, 2:36AM):

I know that Edward Stourton doesn't pretend to be an expert on Central Asian history, so I don't really blame him for repeating this hackneyed Sovietological trope, but he is wrong. Stalin didn't 'draw the borders' in Central Asia - they were the product of protracted negotiations between Moscow and local Communist party organisations, and were based upon both ethno-linguistic census data (much of it dubious) and economic considerations (without Osh and Jalalabad Southern Kyrgystan would have had no cities, and had they been included in Uzbekistan they would have lost much of their economic hinterland). In any case, these borders were never intended to become hard and exclusive - nobody anticipated that these republics might one day become independent.

我知道爱德华斯托顿不假装是中亚地区历史的专家，所以我真的不怪他重复这个陈腐苏联学比喻，但他是错误的。斯大林没有'画在中亚的边界' - 他们分别是莫斯科和地方共产党组织之间旷日持久的谈判产品，大部分是考虑这两个民族语言普查的数据（可疑的计算）和经济上的考虑(没有奥什与贾拉拉巴德, 吉尔吉斯斯坦南部不会有任何城市，如果列入他们<奥什与贾拉拉巴德>在乌兹别克斯坦，他们<奥什与贾拉拉巴德>将失去其经济大腹地）。在任何情况下，这些边界从未打算成为真正的独家国际边界， - 没有人预计这些苏联的共和国可能有一天会成为共和国独立。

The Central Asian republics were created because both Lenin and Stalin thought that it was impossible for 'backward' peoples to attain socialism without first passing through the 'national' stage of development. Thus the real story of the Soviet period is one of nation-building. Before 1917 there were no 'Uzbeks' in the Ferghana valley. The sedentary population would have referred to themslves as 'Fergani' or 'Andijani', or simply as Muslims, whilst both the Russians and the surrounding nomadic population referred to them as 'Sarts', a generic term meaning town-dweller or merchant. This underlines the fact that the divisions within the valley are more social than 'ethnic' (a term which makes more sense in the case of the Kyrgyz than the 'Uzbeks', as the settled population of Central Asia has been built up by successive waves of Turkic migration on a Persian-speaking core). It is the relationship between nomads and settled peoples which is crucial, and historically this has been characterised by both mutual dependence (the settled groups rely on nomadic and semi-nomadic peoples for animal products, the nomads rely on the settled groups for grain and manufactures) and bouts of hostility and violence.

中亚各共和国的创建，因为列宁和斯大林都认为'落后'人民不可能实现无经过'国家'的发展阶段的社会主义。因此，苏联时期的真实故事，是国家建设。 1917年之前没有'在费尔干纳山谷中的乌兹别克族'。当地人将提到他们自己为 'Fergani'<费尔干纳人>或'Andijani'<安集延人>，或者仅仅为穆斯林，而俄罗斯及周边游牧人口称他们为'Sarts'<撒尔塔人, 中文维基 http://zh.wikipedia.org/zh/%E6%92%92%E7%88%BE%E5%A1%94%E4%BA%BA and English 维基 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sart >，这个通用术语的含义:城镇居住者或商人。这强调在山谷中分类的更多的是社会分工 不是'种族'（<种族>这个术语在吉尔吉斯人的情况比'乌兹别克人'更有意义，<乌兹别克人>作为中亚定居的人口已经由连续波的突厥移徙和一个讲波斯语的核心建立了）。这是游牧民族和定居民族之间的关系是至关重要的，而历史上这两个特点是相互依存的（在定居群体对游牧和半游牧民族的动物产品的依靠，和游牧民族依靠定居人口的粮食生产）和敌对+暴力的较量。

In the Soviet period it was decreed that all settled Turkic-speakers in Central Asia would henceforth be known as 'Uzbeks', previously a term which only referred to a specific group of tribes who had migrated from the steppe to the regions around Samarkand, Bukhara and Qarshi in the early sixteenth-century, and to the qipchaq dialect of Turkic which they spoke. This was not simply a Moscow diktat either, but something planned and encouraged by the first generation of Uzbek communists, most of whom came from Bukhara (and who were often, ironically, bilingual in Turkic and Tajik). The Sarts of Khorezm (who speak an oghuz dialect of turkic) and those of Ferghana (who speak Qarluq turkic, very similar to uighur) were incorporated in this new nationality willy-nilly.

在苏联时期颁布的法令，一切在中亚操突厥语的定居者将从此被视为'乌兹别克人'，<乌兹别克人>以前只是指的是在早期16世纪从周围的草原迁移到撒马尔罕，布哈拉地区和Qarshi的一个操突厥qipchaq<欽察>方言的特定群体部落<如同哈萨克和吉尔吉斯说qipchaq突厥方言>。这不是简单的莫斯科发号施令下去，但由第一代乌兹别克共产党人，其中大部分来自布哈拉, 计划和鼓励（他们，讽刺的是，说双语的突厥语和塔吉克语）。在花拉子模Sarts（讲的突厥乌古斯语）和那些费尔干纳Sarts（说Qarluq<葛邏祿, 怛罗斯之战中背叛唐安西节度使高仙芝>突厥语，非常类似于维吾尔族）被一塌糊涂的纳入这个新的民族

。

Whilst the settled peoples of Central Asia had a long history of the kind of statehood the Soviet Union wished to confer on them, this was not true of the nomads, and particularly not of the Kyrygyz, who had no cities, for example. In order to create Kyrgyzstan and set them on the path to socialism, the Soviets gave them a capital, Pishpek (Frunze in the Soviet period, now Bishkek) which was a Russian settler town, and two large 'Sart' towns in the Ferghana Valley, Osh and Jalalabad. As a result of forced sedentarisation Kyrgyz gradually moved to the towns during the Soviet period, especially to Bishkek which is now majority Kyrgyz, but the southern towns retained their historical character, meaning that the old Fergani settled population (now rechristened 'Uzbeks') predominated. This also means that they control the bazaars, the restaurants, the chaikhanas, most of the other urban businesses, and, crucially, the profitable overland trade between Uzbekistan and China.

虽然中亚定居的人民有一种历史悠久的国家地位 (像苏联希望赋予他们的)，真正的游牧民族并非如此，特别是Kyrygyz<吉尔吉斯 or 柯尔克孜>，例如吉尔吉斯人没有个城市。为了创造吉尔吉斯斯坦和设置他们向社会主义道路，苏联给它们的资金，皮什佩克（在苏联时期的伏龙芝，现在比什凯克），它是俄罗斯的移民城市，两个大'撒尔塔'在费尔干纳的谷镇，奥什和贾拉拉巴德。作为一种强迫定居的吉尔吉斯逐步转移到城镇，在苏联时期，特别是对比什凯克的吉尔吉斯现在是多数，但南部城镇保留其历史性格，这意味着旧 Fergani<费尔干纳人>定居人口（现更名为'乌兹别克人'）占主导地位。这也意味着他们控制的集贸市场，餐馆，在chaikhanas，其他的最多城市企业，最关键的，乌兹别克斯坦和中国之间赢利的陆路贸易。

The sorts of tensions which are produced when a minority community (within the country at large) is more economically prosperous than the titular nationality hardly need to be spelled out - one only has to think of the Jews in Europe, or the Indians in East Africa. But added to this in Osh and Jalalabad you have the volatile political situation, in which the Uzbeks seem to have become the scapegoat for the anger of Bakiev's supporters in the southern part of the country. It will probably take a while for the full details to emerge, but one thing we can be quite certain of is that there was nothing spontaneous about this. It was politically orchestrated (as pogroms invariably are) probably in collaboration with local organised crime. Blaming everything on the Soviet legacy is not the answer.

这种少数社区（在大范围内的国家）更比名义上的国家民族的经济繁荣产生紧张关系不需要再详细说明 - 1只想到犹太人在欧洲或非洲的印度人。但他补充说这在奥什和贾拉拉巴德您有不稳定的政治局势，其中乌兹别克人似乎已经成为了巴基耶夫的支持者在该国南部愤怒的替罪羊。全部细节的出现可能需要一段时间，但有一点我们可以肯定的是，没有任何有关这时候是自发的。这是精心策划的政治（如大屠杀往往是），可能与当地有组织犯罪的合作。一切都归咎于苏联遗留下来的不是答案。

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jun/20/kyrgyzstan-stalins-deadly-legacy

他那里面好像翻译了一些动乱前吉尔吉斯人的看法，很排华啊

另外求云飞扬文的地址啊，看过忘记收藏，找不到了

这次闹事的带头大哥，是上届总统，巴基耶夫的儿子。巴基耶夫，就是郁金香革命中被美国扶持上台的亲美派。

喀什特区，摆明是要用从东部转移来的廉价工厂，生产产品吞噬中央市场。经济整合，一体化，进一步就是能源利用一体化。从长远看，是有心吃掉整个中亚。看看地图，吉尔吉斯，是第一站。

喀什一把手，公开场合表示，中亚国家需求不明朗，要派考察团调研。然后是今上亲自去中亚摸一圈底。

这次的时机拿捏，恰到好处，让tg进退不得。

俄罗斯当然不会出兵，这是为tg火中取栗，人家不是傻子。俄罗斯增兵，美国要是也增兵，俄罗斯就不好办了。

何况俄罗斯对于中亚，有后院心理。站在俄罗斯的立场上想，上合组织，也是个权宜之计，在国力衰弱的时候拉拢利用中国抗衡一下西方。

现在对于tg来说，情况很棘手。新疆的战略，已经不可能后退了。无论如何，能源通道是生命线。

看得出tg的谨慎，用撤侨而不是武力护侨，说明tg不到万不得已，绝对不会用武力解决问题。事实上在中亚这个地方，用武力恐怕只会让问题越来越大。何况各方势力都有，而tg远不是武力最强的一方。在国际政治中，武力弱势的一方都到了用武力的那一步，那是被逼的，那是说明事已不可为，只好搏一把了。

现在不用武力，剩下的，估计又是去谈，许一圈好处，看看人家买不买帐。