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主题:北朝鲜迈出了关键的第一步。 -- wanderer

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家园 北朝鲜迈出了关键的第一步。

据BBC报道:

朝核会谈已经达成协议,朝鲜同意60天内关闭宁边核反应堆以换取石油援助。

朝鲜在停止宁边反应堆的运行并接受国际石油援助之后,还需要在国际监督之下彻底关闭和封存该反应堆。

美国和朝鲜之间的建交谈判也会随之展开。

日本现阶段不会参加其它四国对朝鲜的能源、经济和人道援助。

据CNN报道:

Under the deal, the North will receive initial aid equal to 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil for shutting down and sealing its main nuclear reactor and related facilities at Yongbyon, north of the capital, to be confirmed by international inspectors.

For irreversibly disabling the reactor and declaring all nuclear programs, the North will eventually receive another 950,000 tons in aid.

North Korea and United States also will embark on talks aimed at resolving disputes and restarting diplomatic relations. The Korean peninsula has technically remained in a state of war for more than a half-century since the Korean War ended in a 1953 cease-fire.

The United States will begin the process of removing North Korea from its designation as a terror-sponsoring state and also on ending U.S. trade sanctions, but no deadlines was set, according to the agreement.

Japan and North Korea also will seek to normalize relations.

这些石油援助应该是没有收费的,可惜没有石油援助的细节。

[B][/B]

家园 CNN有了后续报道。

Questions remain on N. Korea disarmament

外链出处

Story Highlights

1).U.S. envoy Hill calls deal "the end of the beginning of the process"

2).Accord sets a firm 60-day timetable for N. Korea to seal main nuclear reactor

3).China, U.S., South Korea and Russia agree to pay for N. Korea's disarmament

4).No timetable set for ultimate dismantling of North Korea's nuclear programs

看来, 日本是在趁火打劫,不出钱,还要榜着大国捞好处,的确够坏的。

下面这一段比较“恶毒”。

"What if North Korea doesn't show them to inspectors, if they say we've stopped this and shut down that, what if they say you have to trust us?" said Liu Gongliang, a physicist at China's Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics who has followed North Korea's nuclear program for the Chinese government.

家园 和94年的核框架比,朝鲜好像让步更多了

当时美韩日方答应的还要更多,比如提供轻水堆以换取朝鲜永久封闭反应堆等等。100万吨燃油本来也就是为了解决清水堆建成前能源需要才摆上桌的。现在没提轻水堆的事,而且朝方先动,关闭反应堆,接受检查,然后再接受5万吨油。当然也可能相关条款只不过还没有公布罢了。

当年框架废掉的一个原因就是因为美国国会后来不肯付这些援助燃油,这回不知道谁作冤大头。从中国在这轮会谈中的作为,达成的协议主要依据中国两天前提的提案,加上美方特别称赞中国所作的努力这几件事上,只希望不是中国。

家园 也许小金已经弄出核弹啦。所以卖不出价啊。
家园 这一点我支持马哥的

朝方可能是已经在核武研究方面取得了相当大的成果。即便还没有直接造出核武器来,但是对于生产核武器所需要的实验数据等,可能已经差不多了。

所以价码有所变化。

家园 朝鲜再不答应,中国就要换马了

忘记太阳儿子到北京的时机了吗?

家园 有人已经推算出这个协议的经济数据

The disarmament pact requires North Korea to seal its main nuclear reactor, allow international inspectors and begin accounting for other nuclear programs within 60 days. Within that time, more talks are planned on ending the hostilities between North Korea and the U.S. and Japan.

In return, North Korea will receive 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil, a modest down payment on a promised 1 million tons in oil or aid of a similar value if it ultimately disarms. One million tons of oil is more than two-thirds of North Korea's entire oil consumption in 2004, according to the CIA Factbook.

The aid package is worth about US$250 million (euro190 million) at current prices.

值得一提的是,所有赞成和北朝鲜坐下来谈的美国政治家都认为,这个协议只是一个starting point。俺对这种说法的理解是:美国政治家对北朝鲜政府仍然缺乏信任,同时又期望这个协议能够进入实施阶段。其实,北朝鲜政府如果再次反悔,中国政府与金正日的关系也就彻底结束了。因此,金正日已经没有再次冒险的本钱, 这个协议应该能够进入实施阶段,除非中国政府改变外交政策。

如果想让北朝鲜彻底放弃生产核武器,北朝鲜政府的要价肯定会很高,具体数据可能要等到联合国解除对北朝鲜经济制裁决定以后才能见报。中美俄在这个问题上应该是绝对一致的。

家园 同意。金太阳有其运行轨道,其子只能就范。
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