主题：BMO的房贷按揭利率 -- 菜馆编辑部

我是本嘉明，因为在时事版绿化有功，禁言至今。这里先感谢各位在那里回帖的朋友，凡来捧场了的都要欢迎，感谢。其中有些帖子，已经献花，就不一一作揖了。

何时刑满释放，已经无所谓了，反正那个议题，不会再涉足啦。倒不是怕，精力是稀缺资源，要先预算再投放的，我没留出这块机动资源。

(一)

这里先说说加拿大BMO银行五年房贷按揭的固定利率2.99%。

这个利率，前一阵我们讨论过，当时BMO说这个超低利率的申请日期截止到一月底，但现在延长到3月28日了。

如果有朋友有机会使用这个五年固定利率的话，现在我倾向于建议您认真考虑。

(二)

罗姆尼在超级星期二打胜后，主要的对手无一认输，其实对于罗姆尼是好事，我认为是有意安排。

因为桑托勒姆背后有茶党，新教福音派和能源州的支持，不那么容易倒；金里奇已经投入那么多本钱，自己也断不肯认输，总要等待奇迹。这时候要劝退他们俩，只能靠幕后大佬施压。而大佬们不出手，最大的可能，是要他们继续陪练，免得罗姆尼松懈。

罗姆尼最大的问题，不是小奥而是他自己，是要赢得共和党内一致支持，心服口服。这个，不必让罗姆尼轻易得手，让他继续披荆斩棘，以努力赢得最大多数美国选民的尊重，这实际上进入了“中日围棋擂台赛”模式了。当年的擂台赛，每次中方主帅聂卫平都早早出场，五连胜。因为这么复杂的团队化脑力斗争中，“以逸待劳”不一定好，罗姆尼就像朱元璋，持续高度紧张，从一个地方小军阀慢慢杀成一个地方大军阀，最后问鼎全国。这过程中，他的团队始终在最高效运作，经费又不缺，发现不足立刻改进，绩效是硬道理；而小奥的“国军”，现在还在被窝里呢。

所以我严重欢迎各位继续下注，跟我对赌。不过我也很老实，都说出来了，没有装样迷惑大家啊。

本嘉明:茗谈(六十一)：年货

五年定期2.99%，目前银行就不赚钱，未来很可能亏钱。所以我建议消费者考虑接受。

那么明明不赚钱，作为加拿大五大行中的小弟弟，BMO为什么要搅局？

我认为关键词是“BRANCH”(银行的分理处)。BMO这一举措，带有倒贴广告费的悲壮意义，就为了让自己在全国的分理处能大量揽客，做大当地市场份额。

TD作为第二大，昨天已经跟进，宣布4年期固定按揭利率也降到2.99%。

第一大商业行RBC，仍未表态。

本来两大佬都坚持不降，虽然损失市场份额，但维护了贷款质量，BMO可能知难而退。但如今TD跟进，就很耐人寻味了。

以前我们曾试图讨论“无人银行”(网上银行)的可行性，现在看来加拿大的商业银行静悄悄地统一了思想：BRANCH为王。

CIBC出售自己的BROKER公司，把该代理公司手里的客户资源分拆给各地分理处，以壮大分理处的生存能力，改善营业业绩，看来是异曲同工。

考虑到“千禧一代”(国外叫GENERATION Y，1980--2000年出生者)的网络嗜好，这个固守传统业务方式的战略令人有点疑惑。但存在就是合理，一定是有其道理的。

姑且存疑，以后再讨论吧。

同情中

Banking financing cost is too low now. European and American capital inflow has artificially depressed the 5-year Canadian treasury rate, making it still marginally profitable to lend money at 2.99%. You need to talk to bankers in Toronto, esp., those high-level ones. Low-level staff have no clue, but they are now under tremendous pressure, esp., in the retail lending and commercial lending divisions.

Canadian banking industry just repeated the American experience in 2005-2006. so is the housing bubble. The only good thing is that the Canadian shadow banking system is much smaller and Canadian regulators are not sleepy. Therefore, bubble deflation could be much less painful.

As to Romney, I have pointed out long time before that he will be the final contender.

But he is going to face a divided Republican constituent base and I am not sure whether some Republicans will vote for a Mormon.

If he wins, America's fiscal bomb could be fixed a bit earlier. And America will regain its global dominance earlier. Maybe by 2020, America will come back to what it was in 1992.

If Obama wins, which seems to be more likely, America's fiscal bomb will continue ticking at an even faster pace and Obama will be the destroyer of the American empire.

By 2016 or 2017, we should worry about another major global financial crisis due to this idiot talker of changes.

2012 is the peak of 5-year mortgage renewal.

bank mortgage margin is too low, in order to expand profit, the only way is to grab market share and get mortgage clients from competitors.

Canada is repeating America's experience in 2005-2006.

1）我在你的圈子信箱留了言，回头你看看。

2）BMO：加拿大的总理和财长，央行行长都还不错，而且经济总量小（所以地下金融系统也不大），来自亚洲的投资移民又支撑了房价，所以最近几年出问题的概率不大。但等到全球经济恢复时，加拿大独特的移民房价问题会发作的，本地老百姓早已承受不住了。

3）罗姆尼：这是一场艰巨的，对美国全民的“洗脑拉锯战”。作为总统，学识智商宗教都不是最重要，最重要是勇气和坚毅。这两点，罗姆尼肯定比奥巴马强。

觉得不可思议，因为老本在我印象里还是很像古代忠臣类的，体面的言谏比较多。应该不大可能去种草的。不像俺，经常直接就说“皇上又没穿衣服”。

所以，能不能给那个绿化的帖子，让俺围观一下？这个有点不一般。

至于罗姆尼，我还是维持原来两个通宝的下注。将来的美国总统竟然也用大名鼎鼎的开曼群岛来避税，仅此一项，DEM随便发挥一下，杀伤力对普通百姓就已足够。 因为避税此事虽然合法，但是有些合法的事儿，并不是谁都可以做的。

他以前那十几年的报税也是扭捏不拿出来，这个事也有得进行了。

这只是他自己身上的弱点，但是他还有一个他自己还没有意识的其它地方，他的竞选团队到现在竟然还认为是他的优点，但08团队已经在做伏笔和对比了。

罗姆尼上台又有什么招，还不是老样子，减税。而且奥巴马有更坚决的决心实现美国能源自给。我认为这才是核心问题。

美国现在没有什么依赖外国的，唯有能源是软肋。而奥巴马有坚决的决心要实现能源自给，切断石油依赖。而Republic是照顾石油公司的，没有任何计划要能源自给。

实现能源自给是美国中长期关键任务。比任何财政目标都重大。

因为美国如果能源自给，就没有什么依赖外国的东西。那么，可以随意印美元了，外国人爱接受不接受。如果不接受就要对美元升值，不然就随意。因为石油价格的制约，现在美元还不能随便印。

原来俺是真的烦这个08. 咱们老中都是老实干活的人，平时工作最烦就是这种光卖嘴皮子的，尤其是08这种律师出身的，嘴皮子耍的特别好，但好像又没有什么料的。

再一看08这三年，只干成了三件大事：Bailout华尔街，全民医保，伊拉克撤兵。平均一年一件。但这些大事，甚至包括其他小打小闹的小事（mortgage refinance，失业救济金延长啦），对美国大多数中产阶级的生活来说，真是屁用都没有。Mr.Change， 结果有有钱更有钱，嘛change都没有。

所以半年前，俺们周围都是怨声一片，那时大家对GOP的候选人，真是望眼欲穿。盼星星，盼月亮，只望能来一个真的能change的。

结果，十几场GOP辩论下来，大家都消停了，俺心里也凉了。Romney是个成功的商人，或者说是买低卖高的能手。如果炒股票，我选他。但选总统，光靠flip financial assets，那还不如直接选原来高盛的Paulson呢，人家直接干过财政部，还拯救过08危机呢。

而且这老兄开始摆出对移民和少数种族一副势不两立的架势，作为GOP候选人，做个强硬样子没什么，但拿出要完全否决Dream Act的劲头，我开始怀疑他是不是有点不懂国事了。

然后他最得意的turn around的杰作：Massachusetts， 但靠的是其中一点就是：猛砍地方政府的财政和教育支出。他是把州的财政赤字减少了，结果就是local county 和 地方政府大幅增加property tax，然后州大学学费在他当政的时候，四年涨了63%，这个速度和江爷爷的教育扩展后的学费狂涨有一拼了。

剩下几位GOP，不说也罢。。

所以等听完所有GOP候选人准备如何杀气腾腾的change之后，然后08把Insourcing law 拿出来，俺们没有选择了，只能转身就又加入DEM阵营了。

因为不管是不是为了选举，这个insourcing是不管DEM还是GOP里，真正的第一个对美国骨子上的change。尽管Mr Change 以前食言，但现在改也行，毛主席他老人家教导过：犯了错误不要紧，改了就是好同志嘛。

我预言一个，西西河要么以后变得比乌有还乌有， 要么就是比人民网还人民，大概是没有第三条路了。

1. campaign talk can not be trusted. Rommney is famous for flip-flopping.

2. when you really sit on the chair of the president, you have to change your mind and be really responsible for the whole country. Bush Senior promised no more tax in presidential campaign, but in the 1989 Tax Code, he still raised tax rate to fix the dire fiscal situation of America. That change of heart costed his reelection, but he did do the right thing for America.

BTW, U.S. tax codes has too many deduction/credit loopholes. The gov. can keep low rate, but still raise revenue through getting rid of those loopholes.

U.S. corporate income tax is already the highest among OECD nations. US gov. need to lower rate and work hard to crack abusive tax shelters now.

3. Romney is first Bain Capital consulting partner before switching to the PE business. PE business is not simply the buy low and sell high model as you see after 2004. Traditional PE business demands lots of managerial improvement as well as expertise on tax, law and industry knowledge.

I had friends working for both McKinsey and Bain. I know those are really smart people with rich experience. Of course, if their talents are used in the wrong place, those are big trouble makers.

4.*Romney is an insider of the finance industry. All insiders know that a USD crisis is looming in the background now due to the quickly increasing national debt.

At certain point, global investors will dump dollars and flow into foreign capital market if American keeps on doing what it is doing now. I put that time around 2015-2016. As soon as the European crisis is TRULY over. We should worry about the next USD crisis. I show you the accumulated federal gov. deficit at each year end:

2001: 3.2t

2008: 5.3t

2012(included new budget info): 10.2t

You can see how fast debt has accumulated in America in the last 4 years under Obama. It is almost 1.2 every year. Of course, 2009-2010 is not Obama's fault, but he pretty much spent money like Bush, another drunk fool and shows little sense of responsibility.

Right now, only Chinese, Fed and U.S. social security fund are buying the new U.S. federal debt.

Finance insiders know if USD loses its global reserve currency status, then all game over. AMERICA WILL LOSE LOTS OF PRIVILEDGE, THERE WILL BE MASSIVE CAPITAL OUTFLOW, MASSIVE INFLATION, SOCIAL UPROAR. America will degrade itself into a 2nd tier regional power.

UK lost that priviledge once in 1950s/1960s. It ended up with 2 decades of decline and high inflation.

而且这老兄开始摆出对移民和少数种族一副势不两立的架势，作为GOP候选人，做个强硬样子没什么，但拿出要完全否决Dream Act的劲头，我开始怀疑他是不是有点不懂国事了。--capitalists need talents to earn profit for them. They will not kick out those smart software engineers in California. Capitalists are least discriminatory people because they care about profit only.

Let me tell you the dirty tricks by Obama against Asians, okay? In 2009, Obama needed to polish the unemployment rate. He noticed that if non-green card holders are lay-offed, they would not be kept in the statistics as "unemployed and actively looking for job". So his staff pushed all Wall Street firms to lay off FOREIGNERS FIRST, no matter whatever their level, skill, merits. Lots of innocent competent people lost their jobs and some incompetent Americans stayed just because they are citizens with voting power.

It is totally against the principle of meritcracy in America.

Bank of America even recalled their offers WITHOUT DUE EXCUSE AND COMPENSATION to international students in 2009 and gave those offers to American citizens or greencard holders.

Wake up to see the dirty side of Obama. 08 enjoys 玩阴的, he usually did exactly the opposite of what he said. China has learned a lesson from his foreign policy in Asia against China.

Chairman Mao used to say that he enjoyed dealing with Republicans more than the Democrats, because Democrats often appear righteous with dirty tricks on the back. Please refer to Ben's posts on JFK on this forum.

然后他最得意的turn around的杰作：Massachusetts， 但靠的是其中一点就是：猛砍地方政府的财政和教育支出。他是把州的财政赤字减少了，结果就是local county 和 地方政府大幅增加property tax，然后州大学学费在他当政的时候，四年涨了63%，这个速度和江爷爷的教育扩展后的学费狂涨有一拼了。

--another option is to let your gov. hijacked by those highly-paid gov. staff unions like in Wisconsin. Then you enjoyed a Greek-style gov. bankruptcy and EVERYONE LOSES in the end.

Be careful in what you wish.

Property tax is against imposed against rich people and middle-class since it is imposed on WEALTH, not income. I think the gov. did the right thing, because RICH PEOPLE SHOULD contribute more to the gov.

Of course, Romney can increase sales tax--but that's going to hurt poor people, since sales tax is a REGRESSIVE tax.

再一看08这三年，只干成了三件大事：Bailout华尔街，全民医保，伊拉克撤兵。平均一年一件。但这些大事，甚至包括其他小打小闹的小事（mortgage refinance，失业救济金延长啦），对美国大多数中产阶级的生活来说，真是屁用都没有。Mr.Change， 结果有有钱更有钱，嘛change都没有。

--Bailout华尔街--total disaster. He was fooled by his staff. Nothing changed at Wall Street. He was too stupid compared with FDR. FDR changed the whole finance industry with solid regulation, he achieved nothing bECAUSE HE DOES NOT UNDERSTAND HOW TO REGULATE FINANCE INDUSTRY AT ALL.

--he did achieve something on medicare reform. Good job.

对美国大多数中产阶级的生活来说，真是屁用都没有。

--his votes do not come from middle class. His policies benefit mostly the low-income group (e.g., refuse to cut on social welfare outlay) and super rich people (whom he could not touch because his staff protect rich men).

Middle-class is his taxation source. If your household income is above 250k, then you are favorite victim of Obama. Rich and superrich have little EARNINGS INCOME, they mostly have capital gains, which is very favorably taxed.

BTW, modern-day favorable tax treatments (e.g., long-term vs. short-term, low rates on all gains) were first introduced into the tax code by Bill Clinton in the 1998 IRS Restructuring and Reform Act. haha.

因为不管是不是为了选举，这个insourcing是不管DEM还是GOP里，真正的第一个对美国骨子上的change。尽管Mr Change 以前食言，但现在改也行，毛主席他老人家教导过：犯了错误不要紧，改了就是好同志嘛。

--*没有实际工作经验的人，不会有能力 achieve anything. He needs to fight his staff and civil servants first. Those are two tricky groups already.

then he voted down the Keystone pipeline project from America's most important ally: Canada.

Do you know how angry Canadians are now against America??

They used to sell their dirty oil at much cheap price to Americans and now Americans even refused the pipeline...haha.

I am not against Obama personally. But he talked too much and lacks true capability to deliver.

没有实际工作经验的人，不会有能力 to reform America.

BTW, I do not care whether he is reelected or not. If he is reelected, it is a disaster for America, but good news for China. America will dig a big tomb for USD and China will have more leverage against America.

就是从Cushing到Port Authur这一段。

加拿大现在开始抓特务和外国黑手（美国基金投入加拿大非营利组织），要确保Northern Pipeline

呵呵。多花点时间关注一下上海国际金融中心，2015开门，2020年初具备规模。很多好机会啊。